Net zero must be presented as an opportunity to build a greener, more efficient transport system that drives prosperity and growth
The UK is well placed to lead on coach decarbonisation
The world is on fire. A record 15 national heat records have been broken so far this year. People are struggling with the fatal impacts of worsening extreme heat which is harming economies, widening inequalities and undermining the world’s development goals.
We must step up our efforts. Transport is the fastest growing source of global greenhouse gas emissions. Emissions – especially from transport – will need to decline much more rapidly during this decade if the world is to get onto a safe trajectory.
For more than two decades Zemo Partnership has been at the heart of accelerating road transport decarbonisation in the UK. Later this year we will publish our Delivery Roadmap for Net Zero Transport, which will set out how to bring forward the investment and encourage the changes in behaviours needed to decarbonise the sector at pace.
The government and the sector must now work together to focus on delivery. A long-term vision and a strategy to reduce the cost of investment and underwrite risk is urgently needed. Delivering the UK’s emissions targets and realising the opportunities for green growth in transport must now be the priorities.
We must act swiftly
In 2019, the United Kingdom led the world’s major economies in setting a target of net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. This target will drive ambitious changes in how we power our society and economy, heat our homes, factories, offices and schools, use our land, manufacture our goods and move around our communities, cities, and nations.
We should celebrate the UK’s global leadership on net zero and the progress that has been made so far, but there is still much work to be done. Overall greenhouse gas emissions have fallen since carbon budgets were introduced in 2008. However, emission trends from transport have been largely flat and transport is the UK’s largest emitting sector.
Moreover, having been a trailblazer the UK is now being outpaced by international competitors. A race is on to win the new green industries. We must move fast to seize the opportunities.
The economic imperative
We mustn’t get left behind in the global race. Through the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, the USA has committed more than $370bn in incentives and programmes to accelerate action on climate and energy. The EU has brought forward the Green Deal’s €600bn worth of investment. Germany and France have developed multi-billion euro funds to speed up the low carbon transition.
An ambitious industrial strategy would act as a catalyst for new technologies and innovation and bring jobs and manufacturing to the UK. McKinsey has estimated that supplying the goods and services to enable the global net zero transition could be worth more than £1 trillion to UK businesses in this decade.
There are 20,000 net zero businesses across the UK, employing 840,000 people who earn, on average, almost £10,000 more than they would receive in other jobs
There are 20,000 net zero businesses across the UK, employing 840,000 people who earn, on average, almost £10,000 more than they would receive in other jobs. Workers in these industries are 1.7 times more productive than the national average.
The net zero economy is stronger and more productive in the UK regions, outside London. There are 20 ‘hot spots’ across the UK with significant net zero economies. These include the Tyneside/Teeside coast, South Yorkshire/North Derbyshire, the Mersey River and Cambridgeshire.
More than zero emission vehicles
Transport is responsible for approximately a quarter (26%) of total UK emissions, making it the largest emitting sector of the UK economy. Just over half (52%) of the UK’s transport emissions come from cars.
Existing government policies for road transport decarbonisation focus on replacing the internal combustion engine with zero emission technology, primarily battery propulsion systems, but – in more limited applications – hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles.
The adoption of zero emission vehicle technologies is necessary for delivering net zero transport, but it is by no means sufficient.
It will take decades for the fleet to become fully electrified. Sustainable low carbon fuels have a vital role in decarbonising the existing ICE fleet.
Electric and (some) hybrid vehicles may be greener over the whole vehicle life cycle, but they create more greenhouse gas emissions during their production. Greater focus is needed to incentivise low carbon choices relating to the production phase as well as to encourage the recycling of key components such as batteries.
And we need a step change in the efficiency of passenger and freight movement – including a large-scale shift from private car use to sustainable transport.
Long-term strategic planning
It is critical for business and investor confidence that once the government sets targets these are maintained.
The decision by the last government to roll back on key targets such as the 2030 ban on sales of new petrol and diesel cars and vans was highly damaging.
A clearer policy trajectory is needed for the decarbonisation of road freight. Battery electric trucks accounted for just half of one per cent of all new HGV sales in the first quarter this year. Sustainable low carbon renewable fuels provide an important near-term solution.
Greater policy certainty is required to build on early momentum in zero emissions buses
Greater policy certainty is required to build on early momentum in zero emissions buses. We must move away from stop-start funding and establish a sustainable, long-term funding trajectory.
The UK is well placed to lead on coach decarbonisation. However, with less than 100 zero emission coaches currently on our roads the challenge seems insurmountable to operators, all the while technology options are limited and support from government is minimal. A net zero development roadmap is urgently needed for the coach sector.
Integrated economic alignment
We need a whole-systems approach that embraces the shift to digital connectivity, and the integration of transport with energy, planning, green finance and all the trip generating sectors of the economy, such as health, employment and education.
The integration of transport and energy is particularly critical. Policy across these areas must be fully aligned.
Climate change has been described as “the biggest market failure the world has ever seen”. At the root of this is a failure to price properly for carbon. The time has come for an honest conversation about the role of pricing in encouraging greener travel.
Crucially, we need to look at new ways of paying for road use that replace lost fuel duty as the fleet electrifies. Unless we address the cost structures, we are baking in rising traffic growth and congestion
Crucially, we need to look at new ways of paying for road use that replace lost fuel duty as the fleet electrifies. Unless we address the cost structures, we are baking in rising traffic growth and congestion.
Regional and local growth and delivery requires support
In this critical delivery phase, decisions on key infrastructure and investment will increasingly be made by the devolved administrations and local government across the nations and regions of the UK.
Greater progress on net zero can often be made through place-based solutions. It is often easier at a regional level to break down government silos and develop integrated strategies for transport, housing, skills and economic development.
We must ensure that local leaders are able to plan and invest for net zero on an integrated long-term basis. The benefits are clear for regional growth with a real appetite from regional administrations to generate the momentum needed to stimulate their local economies.
Fairness in transition
Too many people are being left behind. The upfront cost of electric vehicles puts them out of reach for most consumers. Poor access to reliable public charging is another barrier.
The transition to net zero will see new green jobs created in some areas, such as zero emission vehicle manufacturing and infrastructure. But jobs and livelihoods will be lost in others.
The government and the transport sector should work together to ensure that those who face financial challenges are supported, and the benefits of a green economy transition are shared across communities.
An equitable approach will be essential to maintain public support for net zero.
Taking the public with us
Eight out of ten people in the UK are concerned about climate change, but there is no guarantee that the public will support net zero policies. Individual solutions may be perceived as too costly or inconvenient.
We need an informed national public conversation. Net zero must be presented as an opportunity to build a greener, more efficient transport system that creates industrial, business and export opportunities and which will drive prosperity to the UK.
The net zero transition will mean cleaner air, better public health, less congestion on our roads, improved public transport, enhanced energy security, and a stronger, more resilient UK economy
It is vital that we sell the benefits. The net zero transition will mean cleaner air, better public health, less congestion on our roads, improved public transport, enhanced energy security, and a stronger, more resilient UK economy.
This is our chance to build a cleaner, fairer, safer future.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR: Claire Haigh was appointed as executive director of Zemo Partnership in January 2024. She joined Zemo from Greener Vision where she was the founder and CEO. Greener Vision is a not-for-profit organisation dedicated to encouraging the switch to a greener future
This article appears in the latest issue of Passenger Transport.
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