Either we all win, or we all lose

 

How do we prevent short-term thinking and political expediency from driving critical decisions on tackling climate change?

 
The Prime Minister’s Net Zero press conference in Downing Street last month

 
Like so many, I could scarcely believe what I was hearing when prime minister Rishi Sunak made his Net Zero speech at Downing Street on September 20. At a stroke he smashed the UK’s highly cherished cross-party consensus on climate change and threw down the gauntlet to Labour, signalling a brutal run up to the next election in which Net Zero will be a highly weaponised wedge issue.

Despite the PM’s insistence that he was “putting the long term needs of the country ahead of the short-term political needs of the moment”, the decision to delay key Net Zero targets has been widely criticised for putting the UK’s future economic prosperity and energy security at risk and driving up costs. Investors have warned that the shock changes, alongside the decision to axe the northern arm of HS2, will damage inward investment.

The Climate Change Committee (CCC) has challenged the government to provide evidence to support its claim that the UK remains on track. Whilst acknowledging some recent progress, such as the new Zero Emission Vehicles mandate, the CCC concludes, having now “run the numbers”, that the weakening of key decarbonisation policies will make the UK’s climate targets harder to achieve and undermine its position as a global climate leader.

The jewel in the crown of the UK’s one-time world leadership on the climate agenda was its cross-party consensus, which enabled the Climate Change Act and Net Zero legislation to be passed. However, the latest policy developments and rhetoric reveal the consensus to be somewhat fragile and subject to the vagaries of politics. The two main parties now present starkly contrasting approaches to Net Zero.

Sunak promises a “more proportionate” approach, removing unreasonably high costs from “hard-working British people”. Energy security and Net Zero secretary Claire Coutinho accuses Labour of treating Net Zero as a “religion”. Keir Starmer and his team have hit back, promising greater policy stability and confirming that they would reinstate the 2030 ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars and vans and ramp up Net Zero investment.

The big risk is that electioneering will undermine public support for Net Zero, put vital UK supply chains at risk and erode consumer confidence

The big risk is that electioneering will undermine public support for Net Zero, put vital UK supply chains at risk and erode consumer confidence.
Transport is on the front line of attack. Election strategists have clearly decided that the PM must present himself as defender of the motorist. The Plan for Drivers turns established sustainable transport orthodoxy on its head, going against efforts to ease congestion by encouraging more walking, cycling and public transport. Delaying the 2030 ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars and vans is also designed to fit with a pro-motorist narrative.

The PM’s speech was the culmination of a set of shifts within the Conservative Party that began most conspicuously with their unexpected narrow win in a by-election defined by a fight over expanding London’s ULEZ, but which go further back to the formation of the Net Zero Scrutiny Group. What was once a fringe issue has moved into the mainstream. This evolution of thinking within the Party coincides with a notable deterioration in the level of ambition on Net Zero in the UK.

In the run up to COP26 in 2021, the UK was setting out its stall as a climate leader. Government policy included the aspiration for walking, cycling and public transport to be the “natural first choice”. Speaking at a Greener Transport Solutions webinar in 2021, then chair of the Transport Select Committee, Huw Merriman MP (now rail minister), spoke of the importance of modal switch and of the need for road pricing to fill the fiscal black hole as fuel duty receipts disappear. “If we don’t do it now, we never will.”

Two years later, the government’s predominant narrative is on “ending the war on the motorist”. When comparing the Net Zero Strategy (2021) with the Carbon Budget Delivery Plan (2023) the most significant change is an increase in emissions from surface transport – a factor likely to be significantly worsened by the “long-term plan to back drivers” which includes a clampdown on 20mph limits, bus lanes, low-traffic neighbourhoods and the ability of councils to fine drivers who commit offences.

 

The CCC have been highly critical of the failure to deliver much tangible progress. “The government continues to place their reliance on technological solutions that have not been deployed at scale, in preference to more straightforward encouragement of people to reduce high-carbon activities.” Climate Outreach warns that failure to inform and engage the public on the climate crisis could result in a “vocal and unrepresentative minority of the population” undermining Net Zero goals.

How do we prevent short-term thinking and political expediency from driving critical decisions on tackling climate change?

This question is increasingly urgent. 2023 looks set to be the world’s hottest year on record. Unprecedented temperature anomalies in September have shocked the scientific community and been described as “absolutely gobsmackingly bananas”. The UN’s first comprehensive stocktake of global efforts to limit warming concluded that the world is headed for a temperature rise of up to 2.6°C.

Far steeper global greenhouse gas emissions reductions are required, but crucially we have the tools we need to halve emissions this decade and get on track for 1.5°C. We cannot rely on clean technologies alone. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) calls for the “mainstreaming of climate action across society”. Reducing energy demand across all sectors could deliver a 40-70% reduction in global GHG emissions by 2050.

Energy demand reduction can be quickly politicised. The ‘gilet jaunes’ in France successfully mobilised against attempts to increase taxes on fuel. In Germany, the Alternative for Germany party successfully mobilised against a push to require installation of heat pumps. The PM cited cost of living concerns as justification for delaying Net Zero targets, but it is the cost of oil and gas that has hit consumers hard. Scrapping minimum energy efficiency standards in privately rented properties will result in higher energy bills.

Greener Vision has published a new report which investigates how our approach to tackling the climate crisis needs to change. Greener Vision: The Art of Seeing builds on the findings of two thought leadership programmes which explored what would be a credible and deliverable framework for decarbonising transport. The report also draws on The Tabula Project, a creative project which started with the assumption that we won’t solve our most intractable problems with the same thinking that created them in the first place.

The Tabula Project seeks to provide a new perspective on the mind, firstly by examining current thought patterns, then clearing the mind and building a new framework. In applying this process to the climate crisis, we must first examine the assumptions underpinning decision making. An honest appraisal leads us to conclude that our current paradigm is not fit for purpose.

We need to embrace more holistic thinking and an approach that seeks to create unity rather than division.

We need to embrace more holistic thinking and an approach that seeks to create unity rather than division.

We need a radical realignment of how we perceive ourselves in relation to others and the environment on which we depend. We need to design fairer and more equitable economic systems that allow both humans and the environment to thrive. Green growth is the only kind of growth conceivable. Labour have been clear that climate action is at the heart of their economic vision for the UK.

We need to address the root causes of climate change: our addiction to fossil fuels. Pricing properly for carbon is a fundamental building block. Excessive road building increases road transport emissions by inducing traffic. None of the main parties have given any indication that they will end the freeze on fuel duty. The decision to divert some of the cancelled HS2 budget to road building directly conflicts with the Net Zero targets.

We need more honesty and transparency in decision-making. IPCC scientists warn of “a rapidly closing window of opportunity to secure a liveable and sustainable future for all”. Slowing the route to Net Zero will worsen the global climate crisis. Even if the 2050 goal is still met, postponing action – as the UK has done – will cause more heat and damage. The CCC has urged the government to adopt greater transparency.

We need to engage our emotional brains in tackling climate change. Rational scientific data loses out against a compelling emotional story that speaks to people’s values

We need to engage our emotional brains in tackling climate change. Rational scientific data loses out against a compelling emotional story that speaks to people’s values. Any attempts to peddle blatant falsehoods and seek to create division must be called out. The Plan for Drivers gives credence to conspiracy theories about 15-minute cities by pledging to “prevent schemes which aggressively restrict where people can drive”.

We need to think and act in a global long-term context. Labour has promised that if they form the next government the UK will be leading again, holding other countries to account with the power of its example. Climate change is an epoch defining, global intergenerational problem requiring unprecedented levels of cooperation. We must internalise the new zero-sum: either we all win, or we all lose.

 
ABOUT THE AUTHOR: Claire Haigh is Founder & CEO of Greener Vision, a not for profit organisation dedicated to encouraged the switch to a greener future. Greener Vision: The Art of Seeing is published on 19th October 2023 www.greener-vision.com

 
This article appears in the latest issue of Passenger Transport.

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