Matthew Niblett and Sarah Kendall on how Covid accelerated changes in travel behaviour
The threat of another pandemic has not disappeared and it is only a matter of time before we could face another global health crisis
BY Matthew Niblett and Sarah Kendall
Some four and half years have passed since the world was severely disrupted as the Covid-19 pandemic rapidly spread. The immediate effect of lockdowns, uncertainty and strict public health measures had a profound impact on life in Britain and forced major changes to how we live, work and travel. Although it is now more than three years since public health measures were removed, the threat of another pandemic has not disappeared and it is only a matter of time before we could face another global health crisis. As such, it is fitting to reassess what have been the long-term impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic on behaviours, lifestyles and policy. Earlier this year, the Independent Transport Commission released its final research report into the pandemic and its legacy effects on travel, transport and land use. In this article we summarise the findings relevant to passenger transport and the implications for the future.
The wider imprint
Given the extraordinary disruption generated by the pandemic, perhaps the most striking reflection is how many aspects of daily life have returned to a pre-pandemic normal. However, there are a range of imprints from the pandemic on behaviours and lifestyles. Most significantly, the pandemic forced an acceleration in the digitisation of our lives, bringing meetings, retail, entertainment, education and a range of public services online. Some of these largely reverted to physical operations, but in a number of cases online activity is now higher than pre-pandemic, including for retail, entertainment and in terms of accessing various public services such as healthcare and interactions with local government.
Perhaps the most notable legacy has been how digitisation has enabled hybrid working patterns, allowing more people, especially those in knowledge industries, to spend part of the week working remotely, whether at home or in another non-office location. These flexible working opportunities have been widely welcomed by employees, and the proportion of UK jobs which allow some degree of remote working increased from just 12% in 2019 to 44% in 2023 (ONS). Despite a backlash by some employers and commercial property owners, the majority of UK companies have embraced this trend and the opportunities it has generated, particularly in a tight labour market. This trend has had important impacts upon travel patterns, such as volumes and timing, and on urban planning, due to the reduced demand for office space.
Rail: from commuting to leisure
Rail has experienced particularly significant impacts from the pandemic. There was an initial collapse in rail demand caused by lockdowns and ‘do not use public transport’ messaging, but since public health measures were relaxed passenger journeys have since gradually risen to more than 90% of pre-pandemic levels today. It is important, however, to note that this figure is boosted by the inclusion of the Elizabeth Line across London, which opened in 2022 and now makes up about 10% of national rail journeys. The slightly reduced current rail passenger volumes are still more than double those in 1995, accommodated on rail infrastructure that has not significantly grown over that period.
The pandemic forced an acceleration in the digitisation of our lives
The challenge for rail is the change in journey purpose post-pandemic. There has been a significant reduction in commuting and business travel caused by the rise in hybrid and remote working. Pre-pandemic rail was reliant on commuting and business travel, with over half of rail journeys in 2019 made for these purposes. Moreover, ITC research has shown that rail commuters are disproportionately likely to work in the knowledge economy where remote working is most feasible. The overall fall in work-related travel has been compensated for by a rise in leisure travel, which now makes up the majority of rail passenger kilometres travelled. A related change has been a shift in travel times, with increased rail travel at weekends and especially reduced demand on Mondays and Friday mornings compared with midweek. The peak hours of rail travel, traditionally between 07:00 and 09:00 in the morning and 16:00 to 18:30 in the afternoon, have also flattened, while off-peak rail travel has increased.
This shift in travel patterns has resulted in a significant loss of farebox revenue for rail, since demand for higher priced season tickets and peak hour fares has fallen, which has not been offset by revenue from people now buying cheaper ‘off-peak’ fares and tickets for individual days rather than five days per week. Meanwhile, the operating costs of the rail network have remained largely constant. As a result, since the start of the pandemic, costs have significantly exceeded revenue for most passenger rail operations, requiring additional taxpayer support to sustain services. Rail passenger fare revenue is now just over 80% of pre-pandemic levels, and for the 2022-23 year there was a shortfall of £2bn compared to the pre-Covid situation. Rather than the 70% of income from passengers and 30% from government ratio that applied pre-pandemic, rail currently has approximately 50% of its income from the passenger and 50% from government support. This is closer to the ratio across the European country rail networks and this ratio looks likely to continue.
Bus: demand in decline
Bus travel was also hit hard by the pandemic, with journeys during lockdown limited to essential travel and travel by key workers. As a result, demand fell to approximately 35% of pre-pandemic levels. It has since recovered to over 80% of pre-pandemic levels outside London (the London recovery has been stronger), although this masks a number of underlying trends. Previous ITC research has shown that, unlike rail, bus usage has been in long-term decline for decades across England outside London, so the pandemic accelerated an existing trend. Shopping has traditionally been the largest single purpose for making bus journeys, so the increase in online retail has been negative for demand, in addition to the fall in work-related travel. Travel for educational and leisure purposes has remained strong, and these now make up a larger part of overall bus demand than pre-pandemic. The increase in leisure travel has meant that bus travel demand at weekends has recovered better than during weekdays, while reliance on educational travel, with the set hours of schools and colleges, has meant that traditional weekday peak bus demand has been less affected than rail.
The funding model for bus services is highly reliant on local government support, and the financial crisis faced by local authorities since the pandemic has resulted in significant reductions in services. Due to the cutting of services, rural bus operations hit a record low in 2023, and service provision nationally fell below 80% of the pre-pandemic level in the same year. While some additional support has been made available from government through schemes such as the Bus Recovery Grant and fare capping at £2 in England, this has not been enough to reverse the overall loss of service. Concessionary fare bus travel by pensioners, which was a significant proportion of pre-pandemic off-peak demand, has fallen due to older people now deciding to make fewer travel trips than before the pandemic, even when at zero cost to the traveller. There has been a marked difference in urban and rural bus travel, with the former showing healthier signs due to greater subsidies for bus operations in urban areas and the generally better frequencies and service duration in urban areas.
Other passenger modes
The impacts of the pandemic have also been long-lasting on other public passenger transport modes. Travel patterns on London Underground reflect the overall decline in commuting and the rise in leisure travel. By the end of 2023, demand on Mondays and Fridays on the Tube remained about 25% below pre-pandemic levels but, on the other hand, weekend travel had started to surpass pre-pandemic figures. Peak hour travel was also spreading beyond the classic timings. During Spring 2024, Transport for London introduced a temporary ‘Off Peak Fridays’ scheme, removing peak hour fares on Fridays in order to boost demand. The trial has now ended and was found to not be enough to stimulate additional Friday morning demand.
Discretionary leisure travel will be an increasingly significant part of overall demand
In other urban areas, metro and tram services have seen a recovery shaped by local economic conditions. The Manchester Metrolink tram service, for instance, saw demand in 2023 surpass pre-pandemic levels, reflecting the recent strong economic growth experienced in the city-region. Meanwhile, in Nottingham the recovery has been a little slower, with passenger numbers reaching 87% of pre-pandemic levels in early 2024.
Coach travel has also seen a recovery, driven mainly by the rise in leisure travel after the pandemic, and the boom in short-haul aviation demand since international travel restrictions were relaxed in 2022, which has generated a surge in demand for coach travel to airports. Reflecting this development, over the past 18 months National Express has opened a number of new routes connecting to major airports, and boosted capacity on existing routes.
Mapping the future
It is clear that passenger travel behaviour and demand has undergone significant shifts since the start of the pandemic. A key question is how lasting these behavioural changes will be. Some factors, including the growth of hybrid and flexible working patterns and the inexorable rise of online retail, are now well established enough to be considered long-term. While this has inhibited commuting and shopping travel, overall demand has recovered remarkably well. This has been due to the significant rise in leisure travel, as people reprioritise what they are prepared to travel for, demonstrated across most modes and in the recovery in short-haul leisure flights.
For passenger transport, this indicates that discretionary leisure travel will be an increasingly significant part of overall demand, with all that means for service provision and customer preferences. Ongoing cost of living challenges may dampen demand and fares will continue to be under tight scrutiny as choices are made by travellers. Transport exclusion is a persistent and increasing issue for some communities and demographic segments. The ability of passenger transport modes to survive and rebound from the worst demand shock in living memory should give some cause for optimism in terms of transport resilience, especially when the threat of future health crises and economic challenges remains on the horizon. It is important to recognise that these impacts from the pandemic have brought significant challenges for passenger transport.
The loss of fare revenue as a result of weakened demand and less peak-hour travel has resulted in a substantial increase in the need for taxpayer subsidies. In terms of bus services, the financial problems faced by local authorities have resulted in a significant loss of services, especially in rural areas, thereby increasing car dependency. The impacts of inflation and high interest rates in the wake of the pandemic have increased the costs of financing capital projects, causing important infrastructure projects to be delayed or cancelled. The damage that results from underinvestment in passenger transport is serious, leading to reduced economic growth, more transport exclusion and jeopardising net zero carbon targets. The government will need to find ways of increasing funding for passenger transport if these problems are to be avoided.
However, there are opportunities to be seized by the industry to improve the experience of passenger transport. With greater public control and funding, particularly at regional level, there is scope for improving the fares system and service quality, providing more flexibility for bus and rail users. Changed peak-hour demand also offers the possibility to rethink timetabling and resourcing to make better use of capacity, and to reduce the problem of overcrowding. In the bus sector, there is scope to replace scheduled services on low usage routes with on-demand services, learning from private hire business models and using existing technologies. Opportunities exist for devolving more transport spending and decision making to regions and local authorities, where local needs and priorities are often better understood. Crucially, a more resilient and well-supported passenger transport network will leave it in a stronger position to cope with the next demand shock, whenever that arrives.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR: Dr Matthew Niblett is director of the Independent Transport Commission. Sarah Kendall, is an independent consultant and a member of the commission
This article appears in the latest issue of Passenger Transport.
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The post The legacy of the pandemic first appeared on Passenger Transport.